Storm Forecast Issued: 21:08 Tuesday, 3rd August 2010
Valid: 2010-08-04 00:00:00 - 2010-08-04 23:59:00

Regions Affected
E + SE Scotland, Yorkshire and NE, SW, CS + SE England,

Synopsis

A complicated forecast on Wednesday, not helped by subtle inter-model disagreements.

Low pressure "Viola" (FU Berlin) located to the north of Scotland will dominate the weather across the country.

A waving cold front moves eastwards across England and Wales, providing showery bursts of locally heavy rain during the morning. Particular attention is given to the triple point (though in this respect the associated occlusion is not present) where convection is expected to occur. The triple point is forecast to move in an ESE direction from south Wales, along the M4 corridor, to SE England (give or take 40 miles or so to the north or south of this track). Embedded thunderstorms are forecast to develop at the triple point and perhaps along the cold front. Given the conditions, moderate-sized hail is possible and perhaps a tornado, especially at the triple point where a shallow Low is forecast to develop. Should a tornado develop, it may be sustained for some time over CS England in particular given the setup. Any thunderstorms that do develop should clear the SE onto the nearby continent during the evenings hours. Locally high rainfall totals are possible, with over 30mm possible in places.

Behind the cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over Scotland and northern England, with the best environment on the eastern side of both countries. Small hail and local torrential downpours are possible with these showers/storms, whcih should decrease in coverage after sunset.